Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes made one of his boldest forecasts for Bitcoin, projecting that the asset could reach $3.4 million within three years.
In a Sept. 23 note, he stressed that his prediction rests on the possibility of Donald Trump’s administration embracing aggressive monetary expansion through yield curve control.
According to him:
“Between now and 2028, the Treasury must issue new debt to pay back old debt and to fund the government deficit.”
Hayes explained that US fiscal pressures are set to intensify, with annual deficits of roughly $2 trillion expected through 2028.
That shortfall, combined with the need to refinance maturing debt, could drive new Treasury issuance above $15 trillion during the period.
Meanwhile, Hayes expects the Fed to step in as the primary buyer of these debts.
Hayes pointed out that the US authorities had absorbed about 40% of government borrowing to stabilize markets during the COVID-19 crisis. He expects the same scenario to occur now as overseas investors become less willing to finance US obligations.
According to him:
“I believe the Fed will purchase 50% or more of debt issued, because today even fewer foreign central banks will buy treasury debt because they know Trump will issue a fuck ton of it.”
He estimated that combined credit creation by the Fed and the banking sector could swell significantly if that occurs.
Considering this, Hayes linked this liquidity flow directly to Bitcoin’s valuation, estimating a slope of 0.19 for BTC’s price appreciation per dollar of credit growth.
The implication, he said, is that every trillion printed brings the top crypto meaningfully closer to the multi-million dollar range and his prediction of $3.4 million.
Despite the bold projection, Hayes tempered expectations by admitting that Bitcoin price may not reach the $3.4 million mark. Instead, he emphasized that direction matters more than precision.
He stated:
“My goal is to get the direction of travel correct and be confident that I’m betting on the fastest horse, assuming that Trump is serious about printing trillions of dollars to achieve his policy goals.”
As of press time, Bitcoin trades near $112,927, about 9% below its August all-time high of $124,167, according to CryptoSlate data.
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