Key takeaways:
XRP hovered near the $2.75 support, risking an 8%–10% drop to $2.50.
Onchain URPD data indicated a strong buyer cluster around $2.45–$2.55.
Liquidity compression and ETF catalysts hint at a potential expansion phase.
XRP (XRP) price action is teetering at a critical level, with the altcoin consolidating at the base of a descending triangle, a typically bearish setup. The altcoin hovered around the $2.75 support, but sustained selling pressure could drag prices lower toward the $2.65 to $2.45 range.
Such a move would mark another 8% to 10% decline, aligning with a daily fair value (FVG) gap that overlaps with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone could serve as a magnet for liquidity while providing a potential launchpad for bullish recovery.
Onchain data added weight to this technical outlook. Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) for XRP revealed a dense cluster of buyers between $2.45 and $2.55, suggesting a strong cost basis for many holders in that range. This implied that if price revisits this pocket, buyers could defend the level aggressively, creating the conditions for a rebound.
XRP’s behavior remained consistent with its fractal pattern from Q1. The altcoin has already tested the $2.65 mark twice, yet the historical structure suggested that a sweep below this level into the liquid-heavy FVG remained possible before a sustainable rally.
Another notable similarity between the current setup and the earlier fractal is the pattern weakness leading into the weekend, followed by an FVG sweep at the start of a new week. If that scenario played out, XRP could retest the $2.50 zone as early as Monday.
However, while the resemblance is striking, historical fractals do not guarantee an exact repeat of the price behavior, and the market may still diverge from its prior structure.
While a decisive break above $2.90 could invalidate the bearish setup early, current market weakness tilts toward one final dip into the $2.50 area.
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XRP liquidity compression, ETF catalysts forecast volatility
Market researcher Sistine Research noted that XRP could be approaching a significant expansion phase within the coming months. The analysis noted that XRP’s narrow price action over the past 10 weeks is also compressing its order book into a tighter range and leaving larger gaps between levels.
XRP is currently in its third compression phase since the US elections in November 2024, and this one is the tightest yet, built on three consecutively higher price points. Such conditions have preceded sharp breakouts when a liquidity build-up is released.
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay added that spot market flows highlighted the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. The 90-day spot taker CVD shows sellers remained in control, despite brief buyer strength earlier in 2025. Sustained upside would require a decisive volume shift from buyers, which has yet to materialize.
Meanwhile, ETF news looms large. Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been pushed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR debuted with nearly $38 million in first-day volume. Analysts caution that optimism may already be partially priced in, raising the risk for “sell the news” outcomes.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
