Key takeaways:
Over $3.5 billion in weekly ETF inflows and a 5-year low in exchange balances highlight renewed institutional confidence in Bitcoin.
Healthy futures open interest and continuous BTC adoption suggest that traders expect Bitcoin to challenge $150,000 soon.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 4.2% correction on Tuesday after reaching a $126,219 all-time high the previous day, a move that was somewhat expected following a 12.5% weekly gain. While traders fear a deeper pullback amid growing uncertainty in global economic outlooks, Bitcoin derivatives and institutional flows still point to further upside.
Bitcoin monthly futures are trading at an 8% annualized premium compared to regular spot markets, sitting comfortably within the neutral 5% to 10% range. Periods of excessive confidence often push this spread above 20%, reflecting higher demand for leveraged bullish positions. In contrast, bearish markets usually pull the indicator below 5% or even into negative territory — clearly not the case now.
At first glance, derivative traders’ lack of confidence might appear bearish, but it actually reduces the risk of cascading liquidations if Bitcoin’s price dips further. Moreover, data strongly suggests that the rally after the $109,000 retest on Sept. 26 was driven by real inflows rather than speculation. The longer Bitcoin holds above $120,000, the stronger the bulls’ conviction becomes.
Institutional inflows and corporate reserves strengthen Bitcoin’s market position
Institutional adoption continues to favor Bitcoin, cementing its role as digital gold. Regardless of when a new all-time high is reached, Bitcoin has already gained 31% year-to-date in 2025, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 14% increase. Net flows into listed Bitcoin products remain a reliable gauge of institutional interest.
The $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products, including ETFs, pushed total assets under management to $195.2 billion, a clear sign of growing institutional adoption. For comparison, listed instruments backed by silver, which have a market capitalization roughly similar to Bitcoin’s, currently total about $40 billion.
Bitcoin investment companies like Strategy and Metaplanet continue to buy BTC as a reserve asset, reinforcing its status as an independent asset class. Brazilian company OranjeBTC began trading on the stock market on Tuesday after accumulating 3,675 BTC, valued at more than $445 million at current prices.
Bitcoin exchange reserves fall to a 5-year low
Bitcoin deposits on exchanges have dropped to their lowest levels in over five years, signaling a reduced supply available for immediate sale. Glassnode estimates total exchange balances at 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million one month earlier. Even if large buyers can still access supply through over-the-counter (OTC) desks, the declining balances on exchanges point toward ongoing accumulation.
Reduced Bitcoin deposits and derivatives markets’ resilience favor bullish momentum
Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges currently stands at $72 billion, down 2% from Monday but still at a robust level. A deep and liquid derivatives market is crucial for attracting flows from global hedge funds and asset allocators, even when that includes demand for short positions.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may depend on reduced risks of excessive stock market valuations. Traders dumped Oracle (ORCL) shares on Tuesday after reports revealed the company faced shrinking margins in its cloud server business, particularly in Nvidia-based rentals serving the artificial intelligence sector.
Although a short-term consolidation remains possible, the strength of Bitcoin’s derivatives market and ongoing institutional adoption support further upside, with bulls targeting $150,000 or more by year-end.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
