Oil and natural gas prices fell today as markets reacted to the US’s attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
As discussions intensify around the future of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, market analysts believe Bitcoin (BTC) could emerge as a beneficiary.
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Why Trump’s Venezuela Move Is Pressuring Oil and Gas Prices
On January 3, US President Donald Trump announced that the country had carried out a large-scale military operation in Venezuela. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were also captured.
Financial markets reacted to the development as trading opened today, with energy prices moving lower. The Kobeissi Letter noted that natural gas declined by roughly 6% within 15 minutes after futures trading opened. Furthermore, oil slipped below $57 per barrel, hovering near levels last seen in 2021.
Typically, major geopolitical escalations involving oil-producing nations have led to higher energy prices. Nonetheless, this time, markets appear to be reacting differently. The shift is linked to expectations surrounding Trump’s plans for Venezuela’s vast oil and gas reserves.
“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country,” Trump stated in a public address.
For context, Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. It accounts for nearly 20% of the global reserves.
Beyond oil, Venezuela also possesses an estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, many of which remain unexplored.
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“The US taking control of Venezuela is set to bring MORE oil and natural gas supply to the market. The market knows that this weekend’s events will ultimately result in the opposite of a supply disruption. The market is never wrong,” The Kobeissi Letter posted.
The Liquidity Rotation Hypothesis
The US’s control of Venezuela’s energy sector could lead to a further increase in supply, pushing oil and natural gas prices even lower. But how could this scenario benefit Bitcoin?
According to market analyst Eric Fung, in such environments, traders and private equity firms may reallocate funds into alternative assets, including gold and silver. Digital assets could also become part of this rotation, with Bitcoin and Ethereum emerging as potential beneficiaries of shifting capital flows.
An analyst argues that US actions in Venezuela highlight how fiat systems are tied to state power, which can erode trust in the dollar. As a result, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a seizure-resistant, non-sovereign asset, increasing demand and supporting price momentum during periods of geopolitical tension.
However, critics note that the market is ignoring practical barriers. A market watcher argued that Venezuelan heavy crude oil is a theoretical supply risk, similar to Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin.
It exists, but markets cannot price it properly because production is slow, uncertain, and constrained by infrastructure and politics. As a result, it is used more as a narrative to influence sentiment than as a real supply shock.
“It is literally unknown how/when it will hit the market with a significantly higher production/day rate, considering it takes time to build efficient systems. It is more likely to be used as an imaginary manipulation tool than actual supply/demand balancer. Market also can not properly price if USA can hold onto that or for how long,” the author noted.
Beyond the influence of oil prices, BeInCrypto also reported that Venezuela’s alleged Bitcoin holdings, if seized by the US, could potentially create a long-term supply shock that favors Bitcoin price appreciation.
