Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $70,000 on Monday as the shadow of war looms over the entire Middle East. Data from CryptoQuant shows short-term holder loss transfers to exchanges falling to a two-week low over the past 24 hours, and the slowing exchange flows stand in contrast to the rate of selling seen in early February.
Bitcoin short-term sellers step back
The short-term holder (STH) profit/loss (P&L) to exchanges metric tracks how much Bitcoin recent buyers send to exchanges at a profit or loss. These participants tend to amplify volatility during stress events.
On March 1, the realized losses fell to 3,700 BTC even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated in the Middle East. Bitcoin dipped to $63,000 during that window, but exchange inflows from this cohort did not expand in response.
For comparison, on Feb. 5–6, the STHs sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a realized loss within 24 hours. That marked a peak capitulation window. Since then, the loss-driven inflows have steadily compressed.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most event-sensitive holders have not accelerated distribution and exhibited “zero panic”. The drop in loss transfers signals that the sell pressure from recent buyers has cooled.
A strong rally may depend on whether realized losses stay contained or reaccelerate toward prior capitulation levels during this period of geopolitical uncertainty.
Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $204M of Bitcoin in 101st purchase
BTC futures deleveraging meets external liquidity
BTC derivatives data indicate a significant risk reduction. Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that Binance open interest declined to 97,680 BTC from 130,800 BTC since the start of the year, a 25% contraction.
The estimated leverage ratio, which compares open interest to exchange BTC reserves, fell to a 0.146 weekly average. Levels below 0.15 have historically aligned with aggressive deleveraging phases during this cycle.
On the technical side, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its Monthly RVWAP (rolling volume-weighted average price), currently near the high-$68,000 region. The Monthly RVWAP is a volume-weighted average price anchored to the start of the month. BTC trading above it places the average monthly participant back in profit and often shifts the short-term positioning bias of traders.
The four-hour chart shows the price pushing through $70,000 and approaching the first external liquidity pocket between $70,000 and $71,500. Converting that range into support may trigger a price expansion to the $80,000 region, where prior supply capped upside in January. Crypto trader LP said,
“On the HTF, low-leverage liquidation clusters are stacking near and just above the range highs, sitting between 70–73K. These higher timeframe liquidity pools often act as magnets when they build in size.”
The BTC spot flow data adds further context. Binance spot printed roughly $7.79 million in positive delta during the breakout leg, Coinbase added about $1.16 million, and OKX contributed nearly $3.7 million.
The positive delta across venues signals aggressive spot bidding rather than isolated derivatives-driven activity. With leverage use reduced and loss-driven selling falling, the market’s attention shifts to how the price may react around the $71,500 liquidity band.
Related: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?
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