Dogecoin (DOGE) Rally Lacks Retail Mania

The crypto market failed to sustain the bullish momentum over the weekend, which prompted Dogecoin (DOGE), along with several top assets, to record significant declines. The OG meme coin, for one, fell by more than 11% over the past week, dragging it to under $0.24.

But data suggest that smart money is quietly loading DOGE, and a late retail stampede could create a perfect setup for massive upside.

Retail Missing in Action

DOGE appears to be in a phase where smart money, rather than retail traders, is driving the current price action. According to CryptoQuant’s Futures Retail Activity metric, which gauges retail investor enthusiasm, it remains in a neutral zone. This means that there are no signs of frenzy just yet.

Historically, spikes in this metric have coincided with sharp price tops. For instance, May 2021 saw DOGE hit $0.69 before a steep correction, while November 2022 peaked at $0.14 before dropping to $0.06, and late 2024 surged to $0.46 before falling to $0.14.

With retail participation still subdued, the absence of speculative mania suggests DOGE may have further upside potential before the next overheated wave arrives. This setup implies that the “train” might continue its journey and leave room for additional gains if retail investors eventually return to the market, thereby acting as the final push before a cycle peak.

More Gains For Dogecoin?

DOGE had recently climbed to a seven-month high after reaching $0.30. The uptrend was short-lived as it fell over the weekend. This setback trapped the price below a crucial resistance area, following which analyst ‘Trader Tardigrade’ believes that DOGE has entered a higher consolidation zone.

According to the trader, a clean breach through the $0.28-$0.32 concentration would confirm the breakout and likely open the door for the next leg up.

Another market watcher observed that DOGE is seeing a recurring pattern of descending trendline breakouts followed by explosive rallies. Similar setups preceded the 2021 surge, when the meme coin rocketed after breaking a multi-year downtrend.

The current price action shows that the groundwork for a potential new bull run may be forming. If DOGE holds above resistance levels and market conditions align, it could see a rally reminiscent of 2021.